A review of Bayesian perspectives on sample size derivation for confirmatory trials

K Kunzmann, MJ Grayling, KM Lee… - The American …, 2021 - Taylor & Francis
Sample size derivation is a crucial element of planning any confirmatory trial. The required
sample size is typically derived based on constraints on the maximal acceptable Type I error …

Bayesian multivariate probability of success using historical data with type I error rate control

EM Alt, MA Psioda, JG Ibrahim - Biostatistics, 2023 - academic.oup.com
In clinical trials, it is common to have multiple clinical outcomes (eg, coprimary endpoints or
a primary and multiple secondary endpoints). It is often desirable to establish efficacy in at …

Improving the assessment of the probability of success in late stage drug development

LV Hampson, B Bornkamp, B Holzhauer… - Pharmaceutical …, 2022 - Wiley Online Library
There are several steps to confirming the safety and efficacy of a new medicine. A sequence
of trials, each with its own objectives, is usually required. Quantitative risk metrics can be …

Futility Interim Analysis Based on Probability of Success Using a Surrogate Endpoint

R Fougeray, L Vidot, M Ratta, Z Teng… - Pharmaceutical …, 2024 - Wiley Online Library
In clinical trials with time‐to‐event data, the evaluation of treatment efficacy can be a long
and complex process, especially when considering long‐term primary endpoints. Using …

Group sequential testing of a treatment effect using a surrogate marker

L Parast, J Bartroff - Biometrics, 2024 - academic.oup.com
The identification of surrogate markers is motivated by their potential to make decisions
sooner about a treatment effect. However, few methods have been developed to actually …

A cautious use of auxiliary outcomes for decision-making in randomized clinical trials

M Russo, S Ventz, L Trippa - arXiv preprint arXiv:2501.04187, 2025 - arxiv.org
Clinical trials often collect data on multiple outcomes, such as overall survival (OS),
progression-free survival (PFS), and response to treatment (RT). In most cases, however …

Optimal designs for phase II/III drug development programs including methods for discounting of phase II results

S Erdmann, M Kirchner, H Götte, M Kieser - BMC Medical Research …, 2020 - Springer
Background Go/no-go decisions after phase II and sample size chosen for phase III are
usually based on phase II results (eg, the treatment effect estimate of phase II). Due to the …

Incorporation of healthy volunteers data on receptor occupancy into a phase II proof‐of‐concept trial using a Bayesian dynamic borrowing design

F Di Stefano, C Rodrigues, S Galtier… - Biometrical …, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
Receptor occupancy in targeted tissues measures the proportion of receptors occupied by a
drug at equilibrium and is sometimes used as a surrogate of drug efficacy to inform dose …

Implementation and pratical aspects of quantitative decision-making in clinical drug development

JJ Abellan, N Bonnet, A Carlton, P Frewer… - arXiv preprint arXiv …, 2022 - arxiv.org
Quantitative decision-making (QDM) principles address the issues related to the mapping of
results to decisions, the synthesis of information and the quantification of uncertainty. Since …

Utilization of treatment effect on a surrogate endpoint for planning a study to evaluate treatment effect on a final endpoint

H Quan, Z Xu, J Luo, G Paux, M Cho… - Pharmaceutical …, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
To design a phase III study with a final endpoint and calculate the required sample size for
the desired probability of success, we need a good estimate of the treatment effect on the …