The authors present a reconciliation of 3 distinct ways in which the research literature has
defined overconfidence:(a) overestimation of one's actual performance,(b) overplacement of …

A fundamental implication of standard moral hazard models is overuse of low-value medical
care because copays are lower than costs. In these models, the demand curve alone can be …

In the presence of asymmetric information, economic agents need to communicate their
quality to investors and other parties. This paper investigates how information generated …

When people receive new information, sometimes they revise their beliefs too much, and
sometimes too little. We show that a key driver of whether people overinfer or underinfer is …

We propose that random variation should be considered one of the most important
explanatory mechanisms in the management sciences. There are good theoretical reasons …

We investigate whether the perception of economy-wide inflation is affected by the
frequency with which various goods׳ prices are observed. We provide novel experimental …

Uninsured risk impedes agricultural production, but traditional indemnity insurance is not a
viable option for smallholder farmers due to market failures. Weather index insurance is …

Nudge-style interventions are popular but are often criticized for being atheoretical. We
present a model of information nudges (ie, interventions that provide useful but imperfect …

Good news is more persuasive when it is more consistent, and bad news is less damaging
when it is less consistent. We show when Bayesian updating supports this intuition so that a …

We examine errors in learning that arise when an agent who suffers attribution bias fails to
account for her reference-dependent utility. Such an agent neglects how the sensation of …