Surveys are an essential approach for eliciting otherwise invisible factors such as
perceptions, knowledge and beliefs, attitudes, and reasoning. These factors are critical …

For decades, households' subjective expectations elicited via surveys have been
considered meaningless because they often differ substantially from the forecasts of …

This study provides a view of the inflation process that is complementary to the one captured
in standard models, such as those based on the Phillips curve. It char acterises the process …

Inflation expectations are central to economics because they affect the effectiveness of fiscal
and monetary policy, as well as realized inflation. We survey the recent literature with a …

We create a firm-level ChatGPT investment score, based on conference calls, that measures
managers' anticipated changes in capital expenditures. We validate the score with …

We compare causal effects of forward guidance about future interest rates on households'
expectations of inflation and nominal mortgage rates to the effects of communication about …

Central banks are increasingly reaching out to the general public to motivate and explain
their monetary policy actions. One major aim of this outreach is to ensure accountability and …

At the outbreak of the recent inflation surge, the public's attention to inflation was low but
increased rapidly once inflation started to rise. In this paper, I develop a general equilibrium …

We document how supply-chain pressures, household inflation expectations, and firm
pricing power interacted to induce the pandemic-era surge in consumer price inflation in the …

As the pandemic spread across the US, disagreement among US households about inflation
expectations surged along with the mean perceived and expected level of inflation …