Rare events are events that happen with very low frequency. Estimating rare event
probabilities using Monte Carlo techniques is computationally expensive, often to the point …

A method for assessing the probability of collision of two observed space objects in near-
earth space is proposed. The solution is based on the method of statistical modeling, which …

Collisions between Earth orbiting satellites and debris have been a topic of growing concern
among satellite operators and governments for many years. At the heart of preventing …

Predicting space object conjunctions is inherently probabilistic due to initial state and orbit
model uncertainty. A commonly considered Monte Carlo estimator of the conjunction …

Предлагается метод оценки вероятности столкновения двух наблюдаемых
космических объектов в околоземном космическом пространстве. Решение основано …

Monte Carlo methods utilize random samples to provide numerical estimates, and are used
in many application areas. Naive implementation of Monte Carlo algorithms are often …

Since the beginning of the space race in the 50s, humankind has put an enormous amount
of objects into orbit. We estimate that more than 3000 satellites are currently around the …