US estimates of the natural rate of interest–the real short-term interest rate that would prevail
absent transitory disturbances–have declined dramatically since the start of the global …

The equilibrium real interest rate (r*) is the short-term real interest rate that, in the long run, is
consistent with aggregate production at potential and stable inflation. Estimation of r* faces …

This thesis consists of three self-contained essays that contribute to the literature on
macroeconomic forecasting and empirical macroeconomics. The first essay establishes the …

5hN1i~;.\XD METalA. C: PGICaL ST~ c; rlox:--A stated meeting of the Section was held
Thursday, October 3d, at 8 PM In the allsence of the President, Professor AE Outerbridge …

This study employs the recently developed Lagrange multiplier-based causality-in-variance
test by Hafner and Herwartz (2006), to determine the volatility spillovers between interest …

Inflation targets substantially above advanced-economy norms have been suggested by
some research as an approach to minimize costs associated with an effective lower bound …