Forecasting realized volatility with machine learning: Panel data perspective

H Zhu, L Bai, L He, Z Liu - Journal of Empirical Finance, 2023 - Elsevier
Abstract Machine learning approaches have become very popular in many fields in this big
data age. This paper considers the problem of forecasting realized volatility with machine …

Charting new avenues in financial forecasting with TimesNet: The impact of intraperiod and interperiod variations on realized volatility prediction

HG Souto - Expert Systems with Applications, 2024 - Elsevier
This study evaluates TimesNet model for stock realized volatility forecasting, comparing its
efficacy against traditional and contemporary models across key metrics: RMSE, MAE …

Forecasting the volatility of agricultural commodity futures: The role of co‐volatility and oil volatility

HA Marfatia, Q Ji, J Luo - Journal of Forecasting, 2022 - Wiley Online Library
We forecast the realized volatilities of China's agricultural commodity futures (corn, cotton,
palm, wheat, and soybean) using a set of multivariate heterogeneous autoregressive …

Forecasting realized volatility: A review

DW Shin - Journal of the Korean Statistical Society, 2018 - Elsevier
Forecast methods for realized volatilities are reviewed. Basic theoretical and empirical
features of realized volatilities as well as versions of estimators of realized volatility are …

Can LSTM outperform volatility-econometric models?

G Rodikov, N Antulov-Fantulin - arXiv preprint arXiv:2202.11581, 2022 - arxiv.org
Volatility prediction for financial assets is one of the essential questions for understanding
financial risks and quadratic price variation. However, although many novel deep learning …

[PDF][PDF] Big data approach to realised volatility forecasting using HAR model augmented with limit order book and news

E Rahimikia, SH Poon - Available at SSRN, 2020 - researchgate.net
The study determines if information extracted from a big data set that includes limit order
book (LOB) and Dow Jones corporate news can help to improve realised volatility …

From GARCH to Neural Network for Volatility Forecast

P Zhao, H Zhu, WSH Ng, DL Lee - … of the AAAI Conference on Artificial …, 2024 - ojs.aaai.org
Volatility, as a measure of uncertainty, plays a crucial role in numerous financial activities
such as risk management. The Econometrics and Machine Learning communities have …

[HTML][HTML] Time-mixing and feature-mixing modelling for realized volatility forecast: Evidence from TSMixer model

HG Souto, SK Heuvel, FL Neto - The Journal of Finance and Data Science, 2024 - Elsevier
This study evaluates the effectiveness of the TSMixer neural network model in forecasting
stock realized volatility, comparing it with traditional and contemporary benchmark models …

Modeling and forecasting the oil volatility index

JHG Mazzeu, H Veiga, MB Mariti - Journal of Forecasting, 2019 - Wiley Online Library
The increase in oil price volatility in recent years has raised the importance of forecasting it
accurately for valuing and hedging investments. The paper models and forecasts the crude …

The economic impact of daily volatility persistence on energy markets

CS Nikitopoulos, AC Thomas, J Wang - Journal of Commodity Markets, 2023 - Elsevier
This study examines the role of daily volatility persistence in transmitting information from
macro-economy in the volatility of energy markets. In crude oil and natural gas markets …