Differential credibility of climate modes in CMIP6

J Coburn, SC Pryor - Journal of Climate, 2021 - journals.ametsoc.org
This work quantitatively evaluates the fidelity with which the northern annular mode (NAM),
southern annular mode (SAM), Pacific–North American pattern (PNA), El Niño–Southern …

[HTML][HTML] Attribution of North American subseasonal precipitation prediction skill

L Sun, MP Hoerling, JH Richter, A Hoell… - Weather and …, 2022 - journals.ametsoc.org
The skill of NOAA's official monthly US precipitation forecasts (issued in the middle of the
prior month) has historically been low, having shown modest skill over the southern United …

Modes of Variability in E3SM and CESM Large Ensembles

JT Fasullo, JM Caron, A Phillips, H Li… - Journal of …, 2024 - journals.ametsoc.org
An adequate characterization of internal modes of climate variability (MoV) is a prerequisite
for both accurate seasonal predictions and climate change detection and attribution …

Downscaled subseasonal fire danger forecast skill across the contiguous United States

JT Abatzoglou, DJ McEvoy, NJ Nauslar… - Atmospheric Science …, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
The increasing complexity and impacts of fire seasons in the United States have prompted
efforts to improve early warning systems for wildland fire management. Outlooks of potential …

Advances in seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice with NOAA UFS

J Zhu, W Wang, Y Liu, A Kumar… - Geophysical Research …, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
Abstract The Unified Forecast System (UFS) is the next generation modeling infrastructure
under development for NOAA's operational numerical weather/climate predictions. This …

The impact of tropical Pacific SST biases on the S2S forecast skill over North America in the UFS global coupled model

C Stan, V Krishnamurthy, H Bai, B Li… - Journal of …, 2023 - journals.ametsoc.org
The impact of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) biases on the deterministic skill
of the Unified Forecast System (UFS) coupled model Prototype 5 is evaluated during weeks …

The impact of tropical SST biases on the S2S precipitation forecast skill over the Contiguous United States in the UFS global coupled model

H Bai, B Li, A Mehra, J Meixner… - Weather and …, 2023 - journals.ametsoc.org
This work investigates the impact of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) biases on the
Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction project (S2S) precipitation forecast skill over the …

Large-Scale Surface Air Temperature Bias in Summer over the CONUS and Its Relationship to Tropical Central Pacific Convection in the UFS Prototype 8

N Choi, C Stan - Journal of Climate, 2025 - journals.ametsoc.org
This study aims to understand the source of surface air temperature bias over the contiguous
United States (CONUS) during boreal summer (June–September) in the Unified Forecast …

Evaluation and comparison of the subseasonal prediction skill of Indian summer monsoon in IITM CFSv2 and UKMO GloSea5

S Joseph, R Chattopadhyay, AK Sahai, GM Martin… - Climate Dynamics, 2023 - Springer
Documentation of the skill of a prediction system and its comparison with those of leading
modelling centres are crucial in model development. This facilitates understanding the …

Prediction of extreme events in precipitation and temperature over CONUS during boreal summer in the UFS coupled model

V Krishnamurthy, C Stan - Climate Dynamics, 2022 - Springer
The predictions of extreme events by the Unified Forecast System (UFS) Coupled Model
Prototype 5 of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction over the contiguous United …