▪ Abstract Expert and exceptional performance are shown to be mediated by cognitive and
perceptual-motor skills and by domain-specific physiological and anatomical adaptations …

Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or
quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is …

In this chapter, I provide argument and evidence that the scope of people's ignorance is
often invisible to them. This meta-ignorance (or ignorance of ignorance) arises because lack …

Confirmation bias, as the term is typically used in the psychological literature, connotes the
seeking or interpreting of evidence in ways that are partial to existing beliefs, expectations …

People are overconfident. Overconfidence affects financial markets. How depends on who in
the market is overconfident and on how information is distributed. This paper examines …

The pattern of overconfidence and underconfidence observed in studies of intuitive
judgment is explained by the hypothesis that people focus on the strength or extremeness of …

BECAUSE PSYCHOLOGY systemati-cally explores human judgment, behavior, and well-
being, it can teach us important facts about how humans differ from the way tlhey are …

Research from numerous corners of psychological inquiry suggests that self-assessments of
skill and character are often flawed in substantive and systematic ways. We review empirical …

Research on people's confidence in their general knowledge has to date produced two fairly
stable effects, many inconsistent results, and no comprehensive theory. We propose such a …

Psychological research indicates that people have a cognitive bias that leads them to
misinterpret new information as supporting previously held hypotheses. We show in a …