Commodity markets are integral to the global economy. Understanding what drives
developments of these markets is critical to the design of policy frameworks that facilitate the …

We propose a novel framework to analyze how policy-makers can manage risks to the
median projection and risks specific to the tail of gross domestic product (GDP) growth. By …

▪ Oil prices have declined sharply over the past three years. Brent prices, for example, fell
from an average of US $110 per barrel between January 2011 and June 2014 to a low of US …

Monetary policy decisions need to consider all potential outcomes, not just the most likely
path for the economy. This is especially true in the presence of elevated financial system …

This paper studies commodity price cycles and their underlying drivers using a dynamic
factor model from a sample of 39 monthly commodity prices for the period 1970: 01–2019 …

Using detailed information from the Canadian interbank payments system and liquidity-
providing facilities, we find that despite sustained increases in market-rate spreads, the …

Quantifying the relative importance of supply and demand in price movements of
commodities can help inform how changes in these prices might impact the Australian …

We empirically analyze the interaction of monetary policy with financial stability and the real
economy in the euro area. For this, we apply a quantile vector autoregressive model and two …

The 2020 global recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent war in
Ukraine in 2022 roiled commodity markets. As demand dropped in the first four months of …

Recent Evolution of Canada’s Credit-to-GDP Gap: Measurement and Interpretation Page 1 Bank
of Canada staff analytical notes are short articles that focus on topical issues relevant to the …