In the area of patient safety, recent attention has focused on diagnostic error. The reduction
of diagnostic error is an important goal because of its associated morbidity and potential …

Most so-called “errors” in probabilistic reasoning are in fact not violations of probability
theory. Examples of such “errors” include overconfidence bias, conjunction fallacy, and base …

In the past few decades, economic analysis of law has been challenged by a growing body
of experimental and empirical studies that attest to prevalent and systematic deviations from …

Objections to the rational actor model in law and economics are almost as old as the field
itself. Early skeptics about the economic analysis of law were quick to marshal arguments …

Is the mind, by design, predisposed against performing Bayesian inference? Previous
research on base rate neglect suggests that the mind lacks the appropriate cognitive …

Research on people's confidence in their general knowledge has to date produced two fairly
stable effects, many inconsistent results, and no comprehensive theory. We propose such a …

Using the Columbia River Basin in the Pacific Northwest as a case study, Kai Lee describes
the concept and practice of adaptive management, as he examines the successes and …

The previous literature on experts presents two contrasting views. Judgment and decision
research has shown that experts make flawed decisions due, in part, to the biasing effects of …

Where do new ideas come from? What is social intelligence? Why do social scientists
perform mindless statistical rituals? This vital book is about rethinking rationality as adaptive …

Some authors questioned the ecological validity of judgmental biases demonstrated in the
laboratory. One objection to these demonstrations is that evolutionary pressures would have …