The community-of-knowledge framework explains the extraordinary success of the human
species, despite individual members' demonstrably shallow understanding of many topics …

Using data from seven large-scale randomized experiments, I test whether crowds of
academic experts can forecast the relative effectiveness of policy interventions. Eight …

Managers play a crucial role in shaping firm performance. However, we know little about
how managers perform on one of their key responsibilities: managing strategic decisions …

This dissertation studies the effects and elicitation of beliefs. In the first chapter we estimate
the effects of macroeconomic expectations on consumer decisions. We examine this …