The literature on policy success and failure does not capture policies that may be too
successful, as well as “too much” and/or “too soon” patterns of policy. To bridge this gap, this …

In environments with impending regime shifts, previous research studies probability
judgments of decision makers (DMs) regarding a regime shift and finds evidence for the …

The world constantly changes. Regime shifts are a particular kind of changes where the
state of the world abruptly shifts from one to another. The ability to detect regime shifts, such …

Regime shifts caused by disruptive technologies, legislative changes, pandemics, climate
change and terrorist threats affect our lives considerably. In the face of impending change …

Классическая теория обучения в повторяющихся играх рассматривает обучение как
реакцию на успех или неуспех конкретного выбора в предыдущих периодах игры …

Forecasting tournaments have shown it is possible to improve the accuracy of forecasts of
real-world events that sophisticated observers often supposed are too idiosyncratic to be …

We examine the decision maker's external environment as a predictor of her judgmental
effectiveness in detecting regime changes. Relying on two experimental studies, our main …