Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential
book, now with a preface on COVID-19. Invented numbers offer a false sense of security; we …

Under inflation, targeting estimates of the indexation parameter in hybrid New Keynesian
Phillips curves are either equal to zero, or very low, in the United Kingdom, Canada …

The natural rate is an abstraction; like faith, it is seen by its works. One can only say that if
the bank policy succeeds in stabilizing prices, the bank rate must have been brought in line …

This article complements the structural New Keynesian macro framework with a no‐
arbitrage affine term structure model. Whereas our methodology is general, we focus on an …

Proper conduct of monetary policy requires understanding the monetary transmission
mechanism, to monitor the economy, make decisions on the stance of policy, and explain …

The new quarterly model is a valuable addition to the Bank's 'suite of models'. It does not
represent a significant shift in the Committee's view of how the economy functions or of the …

The notion of a natural real rate of interest, due to Wicksell (Interest and prices. Macmillan,
London Translation of 1898 edition, 1936), is widely used in current central bank research …

Understanding the degree of error in estimates of the output gap available to policymakers
in “real time” aids the formulation of monetary policy and the study of inflation behavior. For …

This paper presents a small-sample study of the three-equation-three variable New-
Keynesian macro model. While the point estimates imply that the Fed has been stabilizing …

Abstract The United Kingdom is a highly open economy, and has a monetary policy strategy
of targeting inflation in consumer prices. In this paper, we look at the evidence from the UK …