Computer simulation models have been widely used to generate hydrometeorological
forecasts. As the raw forecasts contain uncertainties arising from various sources, including …

Forecasts are always wrong, otherwise, they are merely deterministic calculations. Besides
leveraging advanced forecasting methods, post-processing has become a standard practice …

Ensemble forecasting applied to the field of hydrology is currently an established area of
research embracing a broad spectrum of operational situations. This work catalogs the …

集合数值模式预报已在定量降水预报业务中广泛应用, 以获得预报不确定性,
最可能预报结果以及极端天气预警. 由于集合系统的数值模式不完善, 且不能提供所有的不确定 …

Accurate predictions of significant wave heights are important for a number of maritime
applications, such as design of coastal and offshore structures. In the present study, an …

Three recently proposed and promising methods for postprocessing ensemble forecasts
based on their historical error characteristics (ie, ensemble-model output statistics methods) …

A “reforecast”(retrospective forecast) dataset has been developed. This dataset is comprised
of a 15-member ensemble run out to a 2-week lead. Forecasts have been run every day …

Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological
prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective …

An analogue of the linear continuous ranked probability score is introduced that applies to
probabilistic forecasts of circular quantities, such as wind direction. This scoring rule is …

Increasing the Skill of Probabilistic Forecasts: Understanding Performance Improvements from
Model-Error Representations in: Monthly Weather Review Volume 143 Issue 4 (2015) Jump to …