We propose a new strategy for dissecting the macroeconomic time series, provide a
template for the business-cycle propagation mechanism that best describes the data, and …

We implement a survey of Dutch households in which random subsets of respondents
receive information about inflation. The resulting exogenously generated variation in …

We develop a tractable method for augmenting macroeconomic models with autonomous
variation in higher‐order beliefs. We use this to accommodate a certain type of waves of …

This chapter studies how incomplete information helps accommodate frictions in
coordination, leading to novel insights on the joint determination of expectations and …

The largest economic cost of the COVID-19 pandemic could arise from changes in behavior
long after the immediate health crisis is resolved. A potential source of such a long-lived …

The Great Recession was a deep downturn with long-lasting effects on credit, employment,
and output. While narratives about its causes abound, the persistence of gross domestic …

This article provides a general framework to study the role of production networks in
international GDP comovement. We first derive an additive decomposition of bilateral GDP …

We develop a method of solving rational expectations models with dispersed information
and dynamic strategic complementarities. In these types of models, the equilibrium outcome …

We study the macroeconomic implications of narratives, or beliefs about the economy that
affect decisions and spread contagiously. Empirically, we use natural-languageprocessing …

We propose a novel identification scheme for a nontechnology business cycle shock, which
we label “sentiment”. This is a shock orthogonal to identified surprise and news TFP shocks …