Making causal inferences regarding human behaviour is difficult given the complex interplay
between countless contributors to behaviour, including factors in the external world and our …

Abstract The Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study is the largest single-
cohort prospective longitudinal study of neurodevelopment and children's health in the …

The Effect: An Introduction to Research Design and Causality is about research design,
specifically concerning research that uses observational data to make a causal inference. It …

Meeting the Paris Agreement's climate targets necessitates better knowledge about which
climate policies work in reducing emissions at the necessary scale. We provide a global …

Many students of statistics and econometrics express frustration with the way a problem
known as “bad control” is treated in the traditional literature. The issue arises when the …

Control variables are included in regression analyses to estimate the causal effect of a
treatment on an outcome. In this article, we argue that the estimated effect sizes of controls …

For scientific discoveries to be valid—whether in theory or empirically—a phenomenon must
be accurately described: The scientist must use appropriate counterfactuals and eliminate …

Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and Stan builds readers'
knowledge of and confidence in statistical modeling. Reflecting the need for even minor …

Knowledge of causal effects is of great importance to decision makers in a wide variety of
settings. In many cases, however, these causal effects are not known to the decision makers …

Placebo tests are increasingly common in applied social science research, but the
methodological literature has not previously offered a comprehensive account of what we …