Survey of attack projection, prediction, and forecasting in cyber security

M Husák, J Komárková, E Bou-Harb… - … Surveys & Tutorials, 2018 - ieeexplore.ieee.org
This paper provides a survey of prediction, and forecasting methods used in cyber security.
Four main tasks are discussed first, attack projection and intention recognition, in which …

Predictive methods in cyber defense: Current experience and research challenges

M Husák, V Bartoš, P Sokol, A Gajdoš - Future Generation Computer …, 2021 - Elsevier
Predictive analysis allows next-generation cyber defense that is more proactive than current
approaches based on intrusion detection. In this paper, we discuss various aspects of …

Projecting cyberattacks through variable-length markov models

DS Fava, SR Byers, SJ Yang - IEEE Transactions on …, 2008 - ieeexplore.ieee.org
Previous works in the area of network security have emphasized the creation of intrusion
detection systems (IDSs) to flag malicious network traffic and computer usage, and the …

Time series forecasting of cyber attack intensity

G Werner, S Yang, K McConky - … of the 12th Annual Conference on cyber …, 2017 - dl.acm.org
Cyber attacks occur on a near daily basis and are becoming exponentially more common.
While some research aims to detect the characteristics of an attack, little focus has been …

DAG-based attack and defense modeling: Don't miss the forest for the attack trees

B Kordy, L Piètre-Cambacédès, P Schweitzer - Computer science review, 2014 - Elsevier
This paper presents the current state of the art on attack and defense modeling approaches
that are based on directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). DAGs allow for a hierarchical …

Exact inference techniques for the analysis of Bayesian attack graphs

L Muñoz-González, D Sgandurra… - … on Dependable and …, 2017 - ieeexplore.ieee.org
Attack graphs are a powerful tool for security risk assessment by analysing network
vulnerabilities and the paths attackers can use to compromise network resources. The …

Advanced probabilistic approach for network intrusion forecasting and detection

S Shin, S Lee, H Kim, S Kim - Expert systems with applications, 2013 - Elsevier
Recently, as damage caused by Internet threats has increased significantly, one of the major
challenges is to accurately predict the period and severity of threats. In this study, a novel …

pwnpr3d: an attack-graph-driven probabilistic threat-modeling approach

P Johnson, A Vernotte, M Ekstedt… - … , reliability and security …, 2016 - ieeexplore.ieee.org
In this paper we introduce pwnPr3d, a probabilistic threat modeling approach for automatic
attack graph generation based on network modeling. The aim is to provide stakeholders in …

[PDF][PDF] Cyber security analytics: a stochastic model for security quantification using absorbing markov chains

S Abraham, S Nair - Journal of Communications, 2014 - jocm.us
Abstract—Most of the current research in security analysis has been centered on
identifying threats and vulnerabilities and providing suitable defense mechanisms to …

A cyber attack modeling and impact assessment framework

I Kotenko, A Chechulin - 2013 5th International Conference on …, 2013 - ieeexplore.ieee.org
The paper suggests a framework for cyber attack modeling and impact assessment. It is
supposed that the common approach to attack modeling and impact assessment is based …